- South Africa’s state owned energy utility, Eskom, reports that loadshedding (blackouts) continues to be suspended until further notice, due to the ongoing intense focus on maintaining the gains made in the reliability and stability of the generation coal fleet during the winter months.
- The winter forecast, published on 26 April 2024, anticipated a likely scenario of unplanned outages at 15 500MW and loadshedding limited to Stage 2 – this remains in force.
Loadshedding has been suspended for 86 consecutive days currently. The last time South Africa experienced a nearly equivalent extended suspension of loadshedding was in the period between 23 July 2021 and 06 October 2021. “Our generation performance continues to surpass the winter forecast for this year. The current unplanned outages remain at an average of 12 000MW,” the utility said in the statement.
Managing morning and evening peaks
Eskom continues to strategically utilise, as planned in its winter outlook, its peaking stations, including the Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs), to meet the high electricity demand during the morning and especially evening peaks. Eskom’s diesel usage remains below its published winter forecast and year-to-date budget. The usage continues to be significantly lower compared to the same period last year.
Key Performance Highlights:
Reduction in unplanned outages:
- The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) decreased to 27.4% in the financial year to date (1 April 2024 to 20 June 2024), a reduction from 35.3% recorded in the same period last year (1 April 2023 to 20 June 2023).
- This reduction in UCLF represents a 7.9% improvement in the current financial year (1 April 2024 to 20 June 2024) as compared to the previous year in the same period.
Planned Maintenance:
The current planned maintenance of 6 222MW is offset from our maintenance plans for this winter by short-term maintenance that was required to ensure the continued plant reliability.
Sustained Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improvement
- The year-to-date (1 April 2024 to 20 June 2024) EAF increased to 61.2%. This is a significant 7% improvement compared to the same period last year (1 April 2023 to 20 June 2023), where the EAF was 54.0%.
- The weekly EAF has moved from 57.0% at the beginning of the financial year to 62.2% from 17 June to 20 June 2024.
- The EAF improvement is primarily due to a drop in the unplanned outages of the generation units which averaged at 11 800MW during the past 7 days.
Strategic utilisation of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs)
- OCGT usage continues to be significantly lower compared to the same period for the past two years.
- From 1 April 2024 to 20 June 2024, Eskom spent R2.71 billion on OCGTs, producing 390.05GWh. This is about 67% less than from 1 April 2023 to 20 June 2023 when R8.26 billion was spent to produce 1 354.34GWh.
- The OCGT load factor for 1 April to 20 June 2024 continued to be much less at 5.88% compared to last year’s figure of 20.41% over the same period.
- Eskom’s diesel usage remains below its published winter forecast and year-to-date budget.
- The OCGT load factor for 1 June to 20 June 2024 was 10.07%, which is marginally lower when compared to last year’s figure of 10.21% over the same period.
A total of 2 796MW of generating capacity is planned to be returned to service by Monday 24 June 2024.
Eskom’s evening peak demand tonight, Friday 21 June 2024, is 29 275MW.
Preventing network overloading and risk to life
As demand for electricity rises and temperatures fall with the onset of winter, the issue of network overloading has resurfaced in some areas due to electricity theft. This theft encompasses a wide range of activities, including illegal connections, network equipment theft, vandalism, meter bypasses, tampering, unauthorized network operations, and purchasing electricity from illegal vendors.
To prevent risk to life and network overloading, which may result in load reduction, Eskom urges customers to reduce their consumption while loadshedding is suspended. Additionally, customers should ensure that their electricity is legally connected and purchased from authorized vendors and report any illegal activities to the Eskom Crime Line at 0800 112 722.
Eskom will provide an update next Friday 28 June 2024 or promptly communicate any significant changes as soon as they occur.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
Source: Eskom
